Thursday 24 November 2016

A Population Paradox

I had two ‘ancestors’ in the last generation, my mother and my father. I had four in the generation before that. Going back generation by generation, I can estimate the number of my ancestors at any particular time by calculating 2ⁿ, where n is an estimate of the number of past generations. Jesus Christ was born 2000 years ago; say, 80 generations. 2 to power 80 is approximately 1 followed by 24 zeros, or one million, billion, billion. Current scientific estimates of the human population at the beginning of the first millennium centre at about 300 million. My calculations seem to be overestimating by a factor of 3.3 million, billion and that’s only my ancestors; what about yours and everyone else’s? What’s gone wrong?
 
It is apparent that the 2ⁿ assumption overestimates the number of ancestors at generation n in two ways. Firstly, males can impregnate more than one female; the number of biological fathers will therefore be overestimated. Secondly, groups of siblings among the ancestors will have the same parents. Do these sources of over-estimation account for a 3.3 million, billion error factor? And, remember, we are only considering my ancestors and ignoring those of the 6 billion others currently in the world? Can someone please explain?
 
 
John Jacob Lyons

Saturday 5 November 2016

Brexit Derailed?

The people voted 'out'. The High Court ruled that MPs must endorse before the process can begin. The Government want to start the process without delay so they've appealed the ruling to the Supreme Court.

My view is that the Supreme Court will agree with the High Court decision but will clarify that it will not be necessary to go through the lengthy procedure normally required for an Act of Parliament. They will say that it was not clear whether the Referendum was granted by Parliament as 'advisory'  or 'executive/ binding'. Therefore MPs need to vote on a simple issue. Did they intend the referendum to be binding on Government? If a majority vote 'Yes', then the Brexit process can be triggered.

If I'm right, Brexit hasn't been derailed.